The talk of the corporate world these days…… When is the market going to bottom? Are we going to see the capital market indicators like Sensex and Nifty going down even further or are we going to witness a bounce back in the investor sentiments?
Obviously no one has the answers. And the only people, who seem to have an answer, are the analysts…. who are paid to utter anything and everything that they feel like on the television channels. Irony but true, “I think… so and so” is the typical answer an analyst gives to whatever is being asked him. It would be incorrect to blame these analysts, I being one of them, because an analyst is supposed to know the fundamentals soundness of a business and its probability to succeed in the long run.
An analyst is not an astrologer or a prophet to predict what other humans are going to do. So how are they supposed to know whether the investors are going to buy or sell? They get paid to blabber whatever comes to their mind and they do so.
By listening to these analysts, broadcasting their thoughts on various television channels, the investor cripples his own judgment. One needs to realize that there are 1000 other clowns, ignorant about the tricks of the trade and who blindly follow the words of the analysts.
The simple moral of the story is, if the analysts say the markets are doomed, all of the 1000 clowns start selling and the markets go down. So a knowledgeable investor should use his own judgment and buy shares in small lots contrary to the predictions of the analysts. So one has now acquired valuable shares at underpriced rates.
Having done that, just wait and watch the show. How panicky the markets get. One can see loads of unnecessary data being beamed on channels and well paid intellectuals analyzing those bits of data to produce information for the ones who don’t understand a single bit of it.
And when these intellectual analysts, start advising investors to purchase stocks, rest assured the analysts have a massive investor following who start pumping in money into the markets and start purchasing shares, the share prices are going to rocket.
So, when one hears the analysts speaking about buying, the enlightened investor starts selling his shares in small lots and books profits.
Therefore, if you know your trade well, don’t follow another person’s judgment and don’t be a part of the crowd, but spin your money.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
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